When the center cannot hold

AS PRESIDENT Robert Mugabe approaches his 83rd birthday on February 21, he can look back and reflect on the journey traveled and in the quietness of his time carefully examine the proposition that the promise of independence may have been significantly eroded by a combination of bad policies, lack of leadership, clinging to a discredited ideology, and pursuit of directionless policies and programs.
In the final analysis he will, as he should, take responsibility for the current economic and political quagmire that has visited Zimbabwe with no prospect for salvation even from Your Governor.
I have no doubt that President Mugabe will not think that it is unfair for him to answer the following questions: Has post-colonial era lived up to the expectations of Zimbabweans? Who should be culpable for condemning a promising nation into the current state of hopelessness? Is it fair in 2007 to exclusively blame third parties for what many may regard as internally generated problems? What, if any, was the Zanu PF plan for the transformation of Rhodesia into an inclusive and dynamic nation? When economic indicators are stubbornly showing that the nation is in intensive care, has the time not arrived for President Mugabe to put the country’s interests first?
Since December 2003, the management of the economy was outsourced to the unelected Dr. Gideon Gono who never conceptually appreciated the gravity of the economic and political situation and mistook the RBZ for the commercial bank that he is erroneously credited for turning around on the back of a patronage banking architecture and profiting from artificially created distortions.
Messrs. Tendai Biti and Arthur Mutambara have already eloquently critiqued the so-called Monetary Policy Statement that essentially confirmed what was predictable that the wheels were off since Gono’s appointment and there appears to be no driver after all. What has not been said is what the real costs of Gono’s experiment with power have meant for the country. The Governor has suddenly run out of enemies to blame or externalise and appears to have come to the realisation that President Mugabe was wrong in entrusting the stewardship of the economy to a blind and paranoid process.
What Gono failed to mention in his statement is the real cost of his misguided policies. It would be simplistic to apportion blame on Gono alone as if he appointed himself. In addition, it is evident that Gono enjoys the support of the President and indeed the cabinet. I am acutely aware that many who have read my recent articles may have come out with the impression that I was trying to absolve President Mugabe from taking responsibility for his record at the helm of the nation’s political economy. Having been one of the victims of the misguided policies, I am not naive to know who ultimately is culpable.
However, it is important that the conversation is broadened to include the totality of the governing structures including the political institutions that give legitimacy to the government.
Some have argued that the salvation of the country lies in a reformed Zanu PF without acknowledging that President Mugabe’s record has to be evaluated in a holistic manner that recognises the contribution of the party and its actors in the systematic collapse of the nation. It is important that we recognise that it is hypocritical to isolate one person when the passengers and spectators to a 27 year process of mortgaging the country’s future are many. Even those who have continued to watch at close range while prudent and rational economic solutions are discarded in preference for untried and bizarre policies are aware of the cost to the nation but choose to remain in silence.
I think that it is important that the conversation be broadened to critically examine as any nation should whether the current government is capable of addressing the challenges that confront the economy. Gono has thrown the towel and seeks to escape scrutiny under the guise that the salvation lays elsewhere as if he suddenly had a revelation. I am sure that if President Mugabe’s actions are informed by a national interest, he would be the first one to accept responsibility that he has failed the nation.
Surely for example, if I acquired a house 27 years ago, it would be foolish for me to blame the previous owner for cracks without taking responsibility for the lack of maintenance during the period of occupation. Yes it is true that indeed freedom is latent, and if you stay in someone’s house you can never be free. Can Zimbabweans after 27 years of self government be considered to be free when they find themselves vulnerable? Is it true that Zimbabwe belongs to its inhabitants or now belongs to a club called Zanu PF whose decisions become binding for everyone even when it is common cause that citizens live in fear today than at anytime in the nation’s history?
Harmonisation of Presidential and Parliamentary ElectionsI thought it may be useful for me to add my voice to the debate on the above mentioned project. There has been talk that the project may be derailed by the so-called 'Mujuru faction' who are presumed to be anxious to change guard in 2008. It is ironic that the future of the Presidency is now somewhat premised on the actions of Zanu PF, suggesting that there may be no plan B to save the country than depend on the same forces that have collectively put in place measures to alienate citizens from their future.
While many argue that the project will not succeed because of internal opposition in Zanu PF, no-one has been able to explain how a poison pill in the party will be removed to allow for another person being a leader of the party before 2009. The last Zanu PF congress was in December 2004 and President Mugabe was elected as party President for a five year term. His current term as President of the Republic expires next year and if the tradition in the party is observed it falls to reason that he is the only legitimate nominee of the party for the Presidency.
If this is true, even if the harmonisation project does not succeed, the party will have to convene a special congress to elect new leaders and to date we have not heard any of the factions calling for a special congress suggesting that there may be no other candidate for the party until 2009. The question is whether the party that is credited with reducing Zimbabwe to a basket case can abandon its leader who has managed to entrench the party in power against the interests of the country in terms of economic development.
Some have said that President Mugabe would agree that if the economic indicators were a barometer for the success or failure of the independence project, Zanu PF would be considered a dismal failure and not fit to run any economic enterprise let alone a nation of 15 million. The economy has already spoken against the harmonisation project and yet political analysts and political actors have failed to articulate why it is not in the interests of the country to continue with failed policies and programs while the nation continue to be blind folded by propaganda.
Some have argued that since Zanu PF parliamentarians did not campaign on the basis that they wanted to implement the harmonization project and Zanu PF’s manifesto did not anticipate the proposed constitutional changes, the party has no legitimacy to change the constitution using its parliamentary majority. This argument does not hold any water as the actions of elected officials are not bound by manifestos or what was said during elections. We may have to accept that there may be no legal grounds to challenge the right of parliament however illegitimate it may be to amend a constitution.
However, it would be wrong for anyone to seek to remain in power when the governed are condemned to a life that even President Mugabe would agree was never part of the independence deal. It is time for those that sacrificed a lot to bring about sovereignty to speak out like Edgar Tekere and Enos Nkala on the key values that they fought for and whether Zimbabwe under the leadership of Zanu PF has lived up to their expectations.
Only last week, I met in Washington DC with a former senior government official who is working for a multilateral development institution and is about to retire. His concern was whether to retire in Zimbabwe or South Africa. He is convinced that Zimbabwe has been sufficiently damaged to give him the standard of life that he expects. I am sure that many pensioners in Zimbabwe who have had to be subjected to voodoo economic policies would agree that they have effectively been condemned to death by a government they trusted so much that they voted it into power consistently since independence while consistently being betrayed. I am sure that even President Mugabe would agree that he has run out of ideas and even the Look East policies many not yield the desired outcomes that people of Zimbabwe deserve.
The real question that people are asking President Mugabe, while using convoluted constitutional arguments, is whether he is aware of the poverty trap that independence has created for many Zimbabweans who have not been able to escape. When you have the majority of the population now carrying their CVs and prostituting the skills for any interested bidder who is out of the country then you know it is time to go. I believe that if President Mugabe is a man of the people as he claims to be, he will agree that it is time to exit in the interest of the nation. It may be a source of encouragement to see leaders like Hugo Chavez experiment with their citizens but the difference is that in Zimbabwe people are now tired of living on borrowed time and lies.
Reflections on Gonomics
I have written a lot about the role of the RBZ in undermining democracy in Zimbabwe not because I have anything against Gono but because I care about Zimbabwe to remain silent when foolish policies are inflicted on a people already battered by bad governance. I am acutely aware that if Gono was a man of principle he would have resigned that participate in robbing citizens of their future without their consent. I thought it would be beneficial to add my insights into the monetary policy statement that read more like the State of the Nation address.
Dr. Gono said that he would not devalue the Zimbabwean dollar. He said: "No devaluation from this governor." Zimbabwe's dollar has been fixed at an official rate of 250 to the US dollar since July last year, but the market exchange rate is about 20 times this rate. Gono, like a politician, said it was not his responsibility to inflict the pain on defenseless consumers that rising prices would bring. He went on to say that: "No amount of devaluation will lead to planeloads, truckloads of foreign exchange flowing into Zimbabwe in a sustainable way."
Like a failed General he pointed out that he had already authorised more than eight devaluations since he took the reins at the central bank in December 2003.
Yes the Governor like President Mugabe may think that accepting market fundamentals is poisonous but the market has a strange way of educating fools.
Yes, the Soviet Union fought against market principles and the jury only spoke after about 75 years at a great cost to the country and not the chefs. It is important that we bring the issue of devaluation into some perspective. The hypocrisy of the Governor is what is inexcusable. While he pontificates that he would not devalue, it is common cause that he is the chief player in the parallel market where the RBZ is a significant purchaser of foreign currency from the market. Is it beneficial for a Governor to pretend that there is a market in Zimbabwe where a person with US$1 will be willing to exchange it for Z$250 when he knows that he can get 20 times more from the parallel market.
Imagine that fuel in Zimbabwe at a cost of Z$5,000 per liter that translates to US$20 per liter at the official exchange makes the country the most expensive for any foreigner to visit and rent a car. While the Governor is bold to say that he will not devalue he makes no statement about the impact of inflation on exporters when their revenues are constant through a manipulated exchange rate that is effectively a tax on enterprising people.
The exchange rate issue is not exclusively a Gono matter but arises from President Mugabe’s deeply held belief that the poor can be protected by refusing to accept market principles. The position of President Mugabe on devaluation has not changed and it appears that Gono is now a willing disciple without being honest to his principal that the official exchange rate does not exist other than for the extortion rate extracted from exporters by the RBZ. It appears that no government official has managed to convince President Mugabe that the black market is a real market and unless the government accepts that wrong policies have consequences, no salvation will come.
Quasi Fiscal Operations
Gono revealed that the RBZ has stopped forthwith engaging in quasi fiscal activities although he stated that the RBZ will finish off the activities it had started. He said: "The RBZ will, with immediate effect, bring to an end such interventions and wishes to concentrate on core business activities. An agreement has been reached although some people were doing their work."
He said a new company, FISCORP Private Limited, will be unveiled soon to administer and collect outstanding loans parceled by the RBZ during the interventions in its quasi fiscal activities. FISCORP will start operating on March 1.
We are now told that the RBZ has stopped engaging in quasi fiscal activities without the benefit of knowing how much was disbursed and whether the funds were used for intended purposes. There have been allegations that corruption underpinned these opaque operations that were hidden from parliament. As the Governor has now said, parliament will once again be denied the opportunity to review these operations and independently confirm that the funds were not used for other purposes or to further the political aspirations of the few who see a real and serious power vacuum created by President Mugabe’s management style that is not detail oriented but long on politics and conspiracy. Why would limited liability company takeover quasi fiscal assets without the people of Zimbabwe being privileged to know how their funds were used. Why set up a special purpose vehicle to warehouse proceeds of what may be termed corruption without allowing the Minister of Finance to present to the nation how the funds were disbursed and utilized and the repayment plan.
In my company’s case, I have only been made aware through court documents that instructions were given personally by Gono for Z$1 trillion (old money) to be disbursed to SMM Holdings under the control of Arafas Gwaradzimba. No report has been produced on how the funds were used and why the government would agree to pay Gwaradzimba a fee of 6% of the turnover of all companies without any third party verification of what is going on.
It is important that Gono is made to account for the crazy transactions that he has been personally involved in so that obscure vehicles like Fiscorp are not used to hide the operations of the government from its citizens. I have no doubt that President Mugabe would agree that if there is corruption involved in the quasi fiscal operations, this must be exposed and it would be unfair for him to extend his term if he is not able to supervise the operations of the government effectively. Anyone who has been following Gono’s activities would agree that he has a propensity to use special purpose vehicles to perform functions of the government as if the government is a private affair of the President. I am sure that the President would equally be concerned about the manner in which the Governor conducted himself in the case of the mysterious car.
In conclusion, I think it is important to use this month to highlight to the President how under his watch the operations of the government have become opaque to the extent that citizens feel they no longer own the development process. Indeed, it is evident that the process of governance may have been outsourced sufficiently to alienate the governed from their future.
I have confidence that President Mugabe would agree with the observations of many that he must take responsibility for the decay and if it can be confirmed that the wheels are off and things have fallen apart, then change has to come because without it, the independence project is at risk of being the greatest sham and robbery by a few using democratic manipulation to sustain and entrench a regime that never had direction.
As citizens try to reclaim their Republic, there can be no better place to start than investigate Gono and the role of the RBZ in undermining democratic institutions.
Ultimately when things fall apart, the center cannot be expected to hold and I am not sure whether Zimbabwe still has a center of gravity or is gravitating to the precipice!