The turning point that never was

LAST week, I wrote an article entitled: ‘Zimbabwe’s Turning Point’ in which I advanced the argument that September 20, 2007, being the day the House of Assembly unanimously passed the Constitution of Zimbabwe Bill 18 represented a turning point in Zimbabwean politics and heralded the end of President Mugabe’s era.
In advancing this argument, I relied upon Vice President Joseph Msika’s reported statement that it was time for him to depart as well as an analytical framework informed by the unexplained rationale for both formations of MDC to become passengers of a ship whose captain they have consistently vilified and questioned his legitimacy.
The premise of my argument that Vice President Msika was on his way out and using deductive logic that President Mugabe was also on his way out has now been rebutted by Vice President Msika in an article entitled: “VP Msika to remain in active politics” that was published by the Herald’s sister publication, the Chronicle, on September 28, 2007.
Addressing delegates after donating money and equipment to various institutions that was sourced by Mimosa Mine in Zvishavane, VP Msika said: “I will soldier on until the day I am buried in my grave. I will never renege on the duties and tasks that the people of Zimbabwe have mandated me to do and as long as you continue to support me I will be there.”
He urged Zimbabweans to remain patriotic and soldier on despite the economic difficulties the country is going through.
He also said: “We do not have to lose morale but we should be more patriotic and revolutionary than our leaders such as Nkomo (Joshua), Chinamano (Josiah) and Mugabe (the President). These people did their part and it is up to us now to do even better than what they have done.
“We must stop going to the diaspora. Takabva nako kumhunga haukuna ipwa (There is nothing special outside). Instead, those people will make us feel even more inferior if we flock to their countries. We know that there is no bread but who cares? Ngatinwei tea yacho nembambaira tisiyane nechingwa chavo (Let’s eat sweet potatoes and keep away from alien foods).
“I cannot be bought. We must refuse those monies from the Americans if it has conditions. Even here we do not like people who get positions through buying. Never! We must work for the positions as our leaders did.”
While forgetting that Mimosa, the host, is wholly owned by Mimosa Investments Limited, a Mauritius-based company held by Implats of South Africa and Aquarius Platinum Limited of Australia (Aquarius) in a 50:50 joint-venture, he then went on to castigate people who were being lured by money from Western countries, saying this was tantamount to selling the country’s heritage.
VP Msika praised Mimosa Mining Company for ploughing back to the local community while President Mugabe in New York was castigating the West for seeking to maintain hegemony over Zimbabwean resources saying: “The West still negates our sovereignties by way of control of our resources, in the process making us mere chattels in our own lands, mere minders of its trans-national interests.”
If VP Msika will only move from office to the Heroes Acre then surely the same applies to President Mugabe. Using this logic, the Presidium of Zanu PF will remain the same until the 2009 Congress at which point the party may then elect new office bearers and it is now evident that the real turning point will only be then, assuming that President Mugabe and VP Msika change their minds about their indispensability to Zimbabwean politics.
If the two retire, then the provisions of Amendment 18 will kick in and allow the party to nominate through parliament the successor to President Mugabe without exposing such a person to the risk of facing the voters directly. The contest in March 2008 will then pit President Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai and judging from past experience and given the context and content of Zanu PF’s election strategy and manifesto, a win by Tsvangirai will mean a negation of the struggle and such an outcome will be deemed to undermine the sovereignty of the nation given the alleged role of the opposition in manufacturing the so-called regime change agenda linked to the economic crisis.Based on the above, it is clear that the destination of the process mediated by SADC through President Mbeki is not known for anyone to have a sense of optimism that the political and economic crisis facing Zimbabwe will come to an end in the foreseeable future.
However, President Mugabe clarified the position in respect of the date of the election in his speech at the UN when he said: “In that vein, I wish to express my country's gratitude to President Thabo Mbeki of South Africa who, on behalf of SADC, successfully facilitated the dialogue between the Ruling Party and the Opposition Parties, which yielded the agreement that has now resulted in the constitutional provisions being finally adopted. Consequently, we will be holding multiple democratic elections in March 2008. Indeed we have always had timeous general and presidential elections since our independence.”
What the negotiations appear to have achieved so far is for the MDC to accept that the government of President Mugabe is legitimate and that the parliament of Zimbabwe has the mandate to amend the constitution without any involvement of non-state actors or third parties.
While it is clear that Amendment 18 could have been passed without the assistance of the MDC, we are now made to believe that Zanu PF will only listen to MDC’s suggestions through the intervention of a third party in the form of President Mbeki. Through the negotiations, it appears that MDC has managed to have its voice heard by Zanu PF in return for accepting the futility of engaging in opposition politics in a vacuum.
In these premises, it is obvious that the negotiations have nothing to do with the fate of President Mugabe and, therefore, the purpose of the forthcoming Extraordinary Congress of Zanu PF may be merely to formally endorse President Mugabe as the candidate for the general elections which point was made last year at the Goromonzi conference, despite Professor Jonathan Moyo and others advancing the notion that President Mugabe would not prevail as an undisputed candidate of Zanu PF due to factionalism.
It is now clear that President Mugabe has not only been vindicated by his own party whose structures have already nominated him as the candidate but by the opposition that what he wants will happen.
It is now evident that any notion that there is a causal link between the economic and political crisis facing Zimbabwe and President Mugabe has been rejected unanimously by representatives of Zanu PF, MDC and Professor Moyo. If one accepts that the Parliament of Zimbabwe as presently constituted is the legitimate expression of the people of Zimbabwe then it is obvious that any talk of a new constitution before the elections can only be relevant if it is in the interests of Zanu PF. So far, Zanu PF has exhausted its appetite for constitutional reforms having made the necessary adjustments to protect its interests to remain in power and be the sole revolutionary custodian of the country’s sovereignty.
Having accepted that the analytical basis on which I came to the conclusion that President Mugabe may exit in December is wrong, it is important that we analyse the implications of his continued incumbency as the head of state and government. One of the motivations for Zanu PF to enter into dialogue with the MDC must have been the allegation that the economic crisis is causally related to the targeted sanctions that were imposed by the West at the alleged instigation of the MDC. To this end, an agreement with MDC would naturally lead to the end of sanctions and the reintegration of Zimbabwe into the very imperialist system that President Mugabe purports to be against.
From the events that unfolded at the UN last week, in which President Mugabe and George Bush exchanged harsh words, it is evident that the MDC has no leverage on the West to remove the targeted sanctions. It appears that the notion that sanctions were imposed to assist the MDC to seize power unconstitutionally may be politically plausible but empirically not substantiated.
As Gordon Brown confessed at last week’s Labour Conference, he is a “conviction politician” who is guided by defined values and world view. What President Mugabe and his government stand for is diametrically opposed to what the West stands for to suggest that an accommodation can be reached without any embarrassing policy reversals on the part of the government of Zimbabwe.
What remains to be seen is whether President Mugabe has what it takes to reverse the slide of the economy without the assistance of his western enemies. It is instructive that even the AU has accepted that there is need for an engagement with the EU in as much as the Chinese, for self interest, are engaging with Africa but the underlying operative ideology that informs the EU and all progressive nations is inimical to what President Mugabe stands for. Will President Mugabe change his value system and world view if he gets a new mandate?
Some say that in need, freedom is latent, and if you stay in someone’s house you can never be free. Although President Mugabe’s speech resonates with the views of the majority in the developing world, it is not the case that Zimbabwe can feed itself today without the assistance of the imperialist forces or it can continue as a pariah state with no international support. While President Mugabe was castigating President Bush, President Mbeki was visiting the New York Stock Exchange for obvious reasons.
If the ‘Look East’ policy had the answers, I am not sure whether the AU would even bother attending the Lisbon Summit while making the condition that no one must be left behind. If Zimbabwe can do it alone, then it does not make sense for President Mugabe to even want to be a guest of his arch imperialist enemies.
In conclusion, we can only pray to the almighty in whose hands the fate of Zimbabwe is and locate the negotiations in the context of a complex power play. To the extent that the opposition has now accepted to be constructive passengers of a bus going nowhere fast, being fuelled by hyperinflation, it is frightening to think where Zimbabwe will be in March and how many more lives will be sacrificed for political expediency.